Weather forecast for Brazil in July: hotter than usual but rainier than last year
For all major cities in the country, July is the coldest month of the year. However, due to global climate change, all regions of Brazil will exceed their average monthly temperature norms. The greatest anomalies are expected in the Central-West region, for example in Campo Grande, up to 1.8°C above normal.
Traditionally, the Northern and Northeastern regions forecast the highest average monthly temperatures. In Belém, a 30-year-old winter record may be surpassed. By mid-July, daily temperatures in the capital of Pará state will range from 27°C to 35°C. In São Luís, monthly temperatures could match the heat record set in 2023, with daytime temperatures forecasted between 28°C and 32°C. In Manaus, daytime temperatures may reach 32-36°C, in Fortaleza 27-30°C, Recife 24-29°C, and Salvador 24-28°C. Nighttime temperatures in the largest cities of the North and Northeast regions will not drop below 22°C.
Expected precipitation patterns will remain within climate norms, yet there will be significantly more rain than in 2023. This news is particularly important for the state of Amazonas and the city of Manaus, which experienced severe drought last year. In July 2024, rainfall here is expected to be about four times higher than the previous year. Similarly, rain is expected to be twice as frequent compared to 2023 in Belém, São Luís, Fortaleza, and 1.5 times in Recife.
Weather in Brazil. Source: islands.com
In the Central-West region, daytime temperatures in Campo Grande will rise to 34-35°C, with nighttime temperatures dropping to 12-14°C. In Goiânia, maximum daytime temperatures are expected to reach 34-36°C, with minimum nighttime temperatures of 15-17°C. Brasília is forecasted to have daytime temperatures of up to 28-30°C and nighttime temperatures not lower than 13-15°C. Throughout the region, mostly clear or slightly cloudy weather is expected. However, Brasília and Goiânia may experience an entire July without any rainfall, while Campo Grande is expected to receive around 7 mm.
In the most densely populated Southeast region, the first month of winter will be noticeably warmer than the climatic norm and warmer compared to the previous year. Meanwhile, precipitation levels are not expected to change significantly. In Rio de Janeiro, maximum daytime temperatures will not exceed 28°C, and nighttime temperatures will not drop below 18°C. Rain is forecasted for approximately one-third of the month. São Paulo is expected to experience similar weather conditions. Belo Horizonte will see cooler and much drier conditions, with maximum daytime temperatures reaching 26-28°C and minimum nighttime temperatures dropping to 11-13°C. There will be 1-2 rainy days throughout the entire month. There is even a possibility that the state capital of Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, may not receive any precipitation at all.
July 2024 will be the coldest in the Southern region. The average monthly temperature in the flood-affected capital of Rio Grande do Sul, Porto Alegre, as well as in neighboring Florianópolis and Curitiba, will not exceed 15°C. Maximum daytime temperatures will reach 21-23°C, and minimum nighttime temperatures will be 8-10°C. Almost half of July in Porto Alegre will see rain, although the total precipitation will be significantly less than in July 2023. Curitiba will experience a wetter month than last year, with up to 70 mm of precipitation expected, mainly in the last decade of July.
