What will the summer of 2024 be like in Turkey?
Yandex Weather meteorologists have prepared a special seasonal forecast.
This summer could become record-breaking hot for Turkey. Significant temperature increases above the climatic norm and last year’s temperatures are forecasted for Ankara, Istanbul, Izmir, Bursa, Konya, Antalya, and several other major cities. Additionally, drier weather compared to last year is expected for the entire western and central parts of the country. Considering that in 2023, some locations, such as Izmir, broke nearly century-old heat records, something similar can be expected this coming summer. July will be the hottest month. Hot dry air is expected to be brought again by the hot winds blowing from the Sahara Desert.
In June, more intense warming compared to multi-year averages and last year's figures is expected in the western and central regions. This includes the Marmara, Aegean, and Mediterranean regions, Central Anatolia, and the Black Sea region around Samsun. The average air temperature in Ankara will be around 20.9°C, in Istanbul – 22.7°C, in Izmir – 25.9°C. The exceedance of the multi-year average temperatures in the three largest cities in Turkey will reach 1.1°C. The difference from last year's figures is much more significant: +2.3°C for the capital, +1.6°C for Istanbul, +2.1°C for Izmir. Thus, most of Turkey is expected to experience an unusually hot June with little precipitation. The lack of rain falls within the climatic norm and traditional summer droughts. Comparing the upcoming summer to 2023, there will be a significant reduction in rainfall in Izmir: from a historical record of 101 mm last year to an expected 20 mm this year. There will also be less rain compared to June 2023 in Ankara (39 mm instead of 80 mm) and throughout the country, except for Eastern and Southeastern Anatolia.
In July, the abnormal heat will persist across most of Turkey – it will be the hottest period of 2024. The average monthly temperature in Ankara could potentially reach 24.8°C (+1.2°C from the climatic norm), in Istanbul – 25.0°C (+0.7°C), in Izmir – 28.9°C (+1.0°C). Meteorologists forecast drier conditions for the entire country than the multi-year averages suggest. However, compared to last year, July 2024 might be slightly wetter for all regions except the western part of the Black Sea region, where a reduction in rainfall is expected even compared to the abnormally dry 2023. The smallest amount of rainfall among the largest Turkish metropolises is expected in Izmir – only 2 mm of rain over 31 calendar days.
Comparing the air temperature over the last 30 years, in August, all of Turkey will once again experience the global warming trend. The most significant exceedance of multi-year norms is forecasted for Ankara, Izmir, and Bursa (0.9-1°C). Looking back at the previous year, noticeable positive anomalies are expected only for a narrow strip of the Aegean and Mediterranean coastal regions from Bodrum to Belek, including Antalya, Marmaris, Fethiye, and Kemer. For example, in Antalya, August 2024 (29.3°C) will be 0.7°C hotter than the 2023 season. For the rest of Turkey, the last summer month will, on the contrary, be cooler. In Ankara, 24.8°C is forecasted, in Istanbul – 25.3°C, in Izmir – 28.6°C. It is also expected that significantly more rain will fall on the northeastern coast of the Black Sea than a year ago. Overall, rainfall throughout Turkey will remain at last year’s level and within the climatic norm.
Important resume for companies operating in the energy and retail sectors: the summer of 2024 will indeed be unusually hot across Turkey and dry for the Mediterranean, Aegean, and Marmara regions, as well as for Central Anatolia. More information about the seasonal forecast can be obtained along with the weather API tool.
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