Winter in Brazil will be hot: in all states of the federative republic, seasonal temperature norms will be exceeded
There are only a few days left until the start of winter in Brazil, but high temperatures and a lack of rainfall are expected to remain throughout the country. To help everyone prepare for the official arrival of the season on June 21, experts from Meteum, an AI-powered weather forecasting platform, have analyzed the country's main cities and reveal what to expect in the coming weeks.
In all states of the federative republic, seasonal temperature norms will be exceeded, and only in Rio Grande do Sul the thermal anomaly insignificant. The deviation from the multi-year average is forecasted to be +0.4°C (16.1°C) in Porto Alegre. This is likely related to the large-scale flooding in May in the region. As large areas are still underwater, they do not heat up well and release less heat into the lower layers of the atmosphere.
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Temperature
In other states, significant exceedances of typical winter temperatures are expected. Meteum meteorologists believe that the highest anomalies will be recorded in the Central-West region and some neighboring areas: in Mato Grosso, Goiás, Mato Grosso do Sul, Rondônia, Paraná, and São Paulo. New records of seasonal winter temperatures are forecasted in Belém, São Luís, and Campo Grande. So, the winter of 2024 will be unusually hot across Brazil, except for Porto Alegre and its surroundings
Compared to 2023, winter will be warmer in the central states of Brazil and slightly cooler in the north and the far south of the country.
For each month of winter and for every major city in the republic, the average monthly temperatures will be significantly higher than the climatic norm. For example, in Fortaleza, Manaus, Belém, and São Luís in July, the coldest month of the year, the average temperatures over 31 days will reach 27-28°C. It is expected that in Belém, July, August, and September will be the hottest in the last 30 years.
Precipitation
There will be a lack of rainfall across the entire country, except for the north of Roraima and Amapá, as well as the eastern part of the country. Precipitation will be below the multi-year average in all major cities, except for Recife. For example, in Brasília and Goiânia, the amount of rainfall will be three times less than usual, and in Belo Horizonte and Campo Grande – two times less.
Compared to 2023, the upcoming Brazilian winter will be wetter for one-third of the regional capitals: Salvador, Fortaleza, Curitiba, Manaus, Recife, Belém, São Luís, and São Paulo. For example, in Manaus, after an extremely dry last year, three times more rain is expected – up to 300 mm. In the Brazilian Highlands, on the contrary, drier conditions are forecasted. Meteorologists also believe that in Rio Grande do Sul and Porto Alegre, there will be 1.5 times less rainfall than last year – about 400 mm.
The rainiest month for most cities is September. During this period, the maximum seasonal precipitation is expected in São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, Brasília, Manaus, Belo Horizonte, Curitiba, Goiânia, Porto Alegre, and Campo Grande. Only for the Atlantic coast in the north and northeast of the country will July be the rainiest. In the central part of the republic – Brasília, Belo Horizonte, and Goiânia – July is expected to have no days with precipitation. In the neighboring Campo Grande, it will also be dry (up to 7 mm).
